Trump’s Return and Impact on the World’s Economy

• Donald Trump’s return as President could lead to escalating trade wars, economic protectionism, and a return to multilateralism.
• The U.S., India’s second largest trading partner, accounts for $118.3 billion, but India has a trade surplus with the U.S.
• The U.S.’s share of total exports to India is less than 3%, and it remains the largest source of Foreign Direct Investment for India.
• Trump’s focus on bilateral trade and circumvention of WTO agreements, such as his unilateral imposition of import duties on aluminum and steel, has raised concerns about India’s trade ties.
• Trump’s ‘America First’ campaign calls for escalating trade wars with allies and adversaries, with his proposed 10% tax on all imports and 60% on Chinese-made products potentially leading to worldwide inflation.
• China, the U.S.’s largest trading partner, is likely to face stiff opposition for many of its products, such as electric vehicles in the European Union and iron and steel in India.
• Trump’s return could affect a range of products, from generic drugs to IT services, with a key concern being a return of restrictions to the highly skilled worker.
• Trump’s pledge to raise oil and natural gas drilling could lead to the U.S. retreating from its climate goals and altering global supply chains.