Trump 2.0: A Mixed Path for India

• India’s warm welcome for Trump 2.0 is tempered by concerns over his social media posts and tough rhetoric on trade and tariffs.
• Trump has gained the votes required to become the U.S.’s 47th President, a change from the mixed ties of ‘Trump 1.0’.
• The Modi government is excited about Trump 2.0, despite the potential impact of his methods, such as using social media to open coercion.
• Trump’s victory will likely lead to smoother India-U.S. ties, including building trade ties, opening up more technology for Indian companies, and making more U.S. military hardware available for Indian defence forces.
• India-U.S. ties are unlikely to face less trouble over issues such as democratic norms, minority rights, press freedoms, and human rights under Trump.
• Public comments by the U.S. State Department and Department of Justice on the Pannun-Nijjar cases will be muted, and the trial involving alleged middleman Nikhil Gupta for the aborted assassination attempt on Khalistani activist Gurpatwant Pannun will continue.
• Trump’s frosty ties with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicate that New Delhi would not have to worry about a reaction from Washington over its ongoing diplomatic war with Ottawa over the Nijjar killing.
• Potential trouble areas could arise from Trump’s focus on cutting trade tariffs, his habit of disclosing the contents of private conversations with leaders, and his involvement in the Kashmir issue.
• India will also seek Trump’s intervention in ending Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, and reopening talks with Gulf countries.
• India’s neighbours may be more concerned about the impact of Trump’s victory, with concerns about losing U.S. support on loans from the IMF and World Bank.