Climate Change Shifts and the Impact on Global Climate Efforts

• Donald Trump’s re-election could lead to a significant shift in American climate policy, potentially causing a diplomatic retreat in global negotiations and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

• Project 2025, developed by The Heritage Foundation, aims to reduce federal climate science programs and end green subsidies, potentially erasing climate justice.

• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the most ambitious U.S. climate legislation, may survive due to its economic benefits, especially in Republican districts with substantial clean energy investments and job creation.

• The physics of GHG emissions remains consistent, with current NDCs leading to global emissions of 51.5 Gt of CO2 equivalent by 2030, only 2.6% lower than in 2019.

• The 29th global meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) in Azerbaijan is expected to be a tense time for climate change, with the Biden administration reluctance to make major commitments on finance.

• Despite the challenges, there are reasons for cautious hope, with the clean energy transition gaining momentum globally and the likely survival of the IRA.

• The U.S. will not support global climate finance or take responsibility for being the largest cumulative emitter of GHGs, and climate justice will likely get stalled at a time when the world can least afford delay.