Trade shock

• October’s foreign trade numbers showed a 28-month high in goods exports, but November’s trade estimates revealed a double whammy.
• Outbound shipments’ value dropped to the lowest in over two years at $32.1 billion, while the import bill hit a record high of $70 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase.
• Goods exports were 18.1% lower compared to October.
• Gold imports jumped 331.5% to $14.9 billion in November, up 49% this year.
• Gems and jewellery exports are down 10.2% between April and November, while imports have widened over 30%.
• The overall gap in merchandise trade expanded to a fresh high of $37.8 billion in November.
• Petroleum also played a key part in this widening, with exports halving to $3.7 billion and imports rising 7.9% to $16.1 billion.
• The Commerce Ministry top brass argues that rising import bills are not a concern as India is growing faster than the world.
• Oil and jewellery remain among India’s top tradeables, and policymakers need to understand the dynamics behind this turmoil.