At 75, India and China need to focus on strategy rather than sentiment

• India and China’s 75-year diplomatic ties are at a pivotal juncture in Asian and global geopolitics.

• The relationship is a complex one, characterized by contested borders, strategic rivalry, and deep mistrust.

• The “China lens” is the most influential external factor shaping India’s foreign policy, influencing strategic decisions from border infrastructure to trade diversification and defense cooperation.

• The Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains tense, heavily militarised, and vulnerable to miscalculation.

• India’s trade imbalance with China reached almost $100 billion in 2024-25, yet Beijing is one of India’s largest trading partners.

• India’s approach has evolved into “competitive coexistence”, competing with China in defense, infrastructure, and regional influence while maintaining engagement.

• India’s response to China’s growing footprint in South Asia has challenged India’s traditional role as the regional anchor.

• India must now move beyond reactive diplomacy to proactive, long-term engagement that wins hearts, not just headlines.

• The return of Donald Trump to the White House has complicated India’s position on China, with pressure to align more closely with Washington.

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s remarks on the Lex Fridman podcast signaled a subtle recalibration, evoking ancient India-China synergy and emphasizing dialogue.

• China’s response was positive, with verification patrolling along the LAC resumed in January 2025, signaling tentative steps toward de-escalation.

• The underlying risks remain unchanged, with the planned dam by China on the Yarlung Tsangpo rekindling concerns about ecological security and water weaponisation.

• India’s China policy must rest on four pillars: military readiness, economic diversification, diplomatic engagement, and narrative control.

• The “three mutuals” — respect, sensitivity, and interest — must guide the way forward.

• As India marks 75 years of bilateral ties, it is a moment for strategy, not sentiment. India’s goal must be clear: to define its place in a world reshaped by flux, rivalry, and shifting alliances.