Warming likely to make cyclones more destructive than ever before

• Researchers at ETH Zurich predict that cyclones could wreak more havoc if global warming follows a future climate scenario called SSP5-8.5.

• The intensity of cyclones and their location in previously unexplored areas could increase their destructiveness.

• Climate change impacts various sectors and ecosystems, using shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to understand its effects.

• SSP5-8.5 is the SSP5 pathway plus a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2, which is 2.7 W/m2 over the value in 1750.

• A follow-up study and two more researchers also reported that roughly half of the world’s mangroves will be at high to severe risk by 2100.

• The effects of climate change on tropical cyclones could have far-reaching and multifaceted consequences worldwide, not just in the tropics.

• The researchers used the CLIMADA risk modelling platform to check how specific ecoregions around the world responded to shifts in tropical cyclone patterns between 1980 and 2017.

• The models found that of the world’s 844 ecoregions, 290 are already affected by tropical cyclones, 200 more can be considered vulnerable, and 26 to be resilient.

• In the resilient ecoregions, the time available to recover between storms could drop from 19 years in the 1980-2017 period to 12 years in the 2015-2050 period for high-intensity storms.

• In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, up to 56% of mangrove areas worldwide could be at high to severe risk by 2100.

• The authors suggest including long-term recovery time in risk assessments in addition to damage caused by cyclones and risk-sensitive conservation planning.