After Operation Sindoor, counterterrorism reflection

• Pakistan’s responsibility for the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) since Independence has been substantial.

• The security landscape has evolved from predominantly indigenous insurgency to significant participation of foreign terrorists in the mid-1990s.

• Local dynamics related to identity, marginalisation, repression, and political disenfranchisement have played pivotal roles in terrorism.

• The interplay between external sponsorship and internal vulnerabilities creates a complex ecosystem of terrorism.

• Since 1989, security forces have made substantial progress in J&K, with overall fatalities reducing from over 4,000 lives in 2001 to 127 in 2024.

• Despite the success of kinetic actions like surgical strikes and the Balakot aerial strike, Pakistan’s capacity to wage a high-intensity proxy war has not deterred Pakistan.

• The participation of local terrorists in J&K is very low compared to the Burhan Wani days.

• The deteriorating security situation in the Jammu region has been marked by a kill ratio that favors the terrorists.

• The prevalent degree of local support for the terrorists is worrying, with human intelligence (HUMINT) seemingly drying up.

• The bipartisan support of the local population in J&K against the Pahalgam massacre presents a strategic opportunity that must be consolidated.

• The externalisation of terrorism through high-impact, war-like response is necessary but may distract from the primary goal – terrorism in J&K.

• The multidimensional approach to the internal dynamics, including sustained political engagement, economic development, and social integration, complemented by security-centric measures, is critical for effective deterrence.