Is global warming distracting?

Global Mean Temperature Rise and the Paris Agreement

• The Paris Agreement enshrines a global mean temperature rise of 2ºC as a safe level of global warming by 2100.

• The Paris Agreement reduced this threshold to 1.5ºC due to the Alliance of Small Island and Developing States’ demand.

• The climate community has been trying to quantify climate change and its consequences relative to these warming levels.

Uncertainties in Global Mean Temperature Rise Estimates

• The models scientists use for climate projections are not perfect, affecting the uncertainties in global mean temperature rise estimates.

• To make predictions for years far beyond 2050, the models need to know the greenhouse gas emissions at the time.

• The exact amount of warming, whether 1.5ºC, 1.75ºC or 2ºC, hardly matters for disaster management and adaptations required today.

Climate Disasters and Global Mean Warming

• Climate disasters like heatwaves, floods, and droughts are becoming more protracted, frequent, and intense.

• The question remains as to whether 2025 will continue to warm or if the rate of warming will drop.

• Climate mitigation must continue, even accelerate while global mean warming is a distraction.

Climate Disasters and Early Warning Systems

• Climate disasters like heatwaves, floods, and droughts are becoming more protracted, frequent, and intense.

• Early warning systems and disaster management are becoming better overall.

• Global plans under the UN, such as Early Warnings for All, promise to ensure poorer countries are not left out.

• To manage day-to-day crises better, we also need predictions at the decadal timescale to allow countries to plan ahead for adaptation and resilience.

• The earth’s tropics are a hotspot of climate change’s consequences since they are warmer to begin with.

• Good early warnings are worthless unless they are actionable up to the last mile.