The third nuclear age

The First Nuclear Age

• The first nuclear age was characterized by superpower rivalry, with the US and Soviets increasing their arsenals and seeking to create a nuclear regime.

• The USSR and the US engaged in bilateral arms control treaties, reducing their stockpiles.

• The last treaty, the New START, limits deployed warheads to 1,550 each, expires in February 2026.

The Second Nuclear Age

• Russia and the US are modernizing their arsenals, with China having the fastest-growing arsenal.

• A negotiated test ban and talk of a fissile ban treaty were attempts to freeze the status quo and prevent new nuclear entrants.

• The Nuclear Ban Treaty, negotiated in 2017, without a single nuclear weapons state supporting it, was a cynicism.

• The extension of the NPT and the status of the five nuclear weapons states made the world safe for their continued possession of nukes.

The Third Nuclear Age

• The renewed salience of nukes is superimposed on a global order in flux.

• China views its aggressive nuclear build up as a “strategic counterbalance” to shape the global balance of power.

• NATO’s European allies are looking to France and Britain to deter a resurgent Russia.

• Russia is moving out nuclear weapons once again, and last year, Vladimir Putin transferred tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

• The real fear of nuclear use is overshadowed by developments, with nuclear threats over Ukraine showing that nuclear weapons are being used to change the status quo.

• If nuclear deterrence shifts in this nuclear age at a time of global realignment and potential instability, we are entering a period of self-inflicted nuclear insecurity.