The endgame for Netanyahu in Iran?

Israel’s Air War Against Iran

• Israel launched an air war on Iran on June 13, aiming to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme.

• Israel bombed Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, ballistic missile sites, and assassinated top Generals.

• Israel has established air superiority over Iran, and in retaliation, Iran launched nearly 400 missiles, hitting several targets in Israel.

Questioning Israel’s Endgame

• Israel’s goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear programme is far from being achieved.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Israel’s attack severely damaged or destroyed centrifuges at the Natanz facility.

• Despite Israel’s aerial superiority, it lacks the kind of bunker buster bombs or strategic bombers to destroy heavily fortified facilities.

• Iran continues to attack with drones and ballistic missiles, resulting in at least 24 deaths in Israel.

Three Options for Netanyahu

• State collapse: Continued bombing of Iran, destroying state institutions and infrastructure, and pushing for regime change in Tehran.

• Diplomacy: U.S. President Donald Trump expressed openness for a deal with Iran, suggesting he wanted to use the Israeli strikes as an added layer of pressure.

• American involvement: The U.S. could be dragged into the war, despite Trump’s initial claim of not being involved.

Implications for Israel’s West Asia

• If Tehran falls, it would boost Israel’s efforts to reshape West Asia.

• If Iran is weakened, Russia’s remaining strategic influence in West Asia will shrink further, and China will be more dependent on America’s Gulf Arab allies for oil.