A reset in West Asia, a ‘de-escalation’ for the global

• The bombing of Iran by Israel and the US has been approved by most countries in the region, including Europe, Russia, and China.

• The region is now facing a dominant nuclear power, Israel, with 40,000 American troops stationed on its soil and numerous air and sea assets.

• Initially, the Gulf and other West Asian countries feared Iran and its proxies as much as the Israelis.

• The presence of an aggressive Iran made the Gulf countries soft pedal and make compromises on other issues, including Palestine.

• The threat has receded except for the Houthis in Yemen and the militias in Iraq.

• The Gulf countries have been building bridges with the U.S. administration and waiting to operationalize the Abraham Accords, which normalised their relations with Israel.

• Iran has responded by targeting U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq, claiming proportional retaliation.

• Iran’s leadership views this as an existential crisis, with the end game being regime change to dismantle their theological foundation and political ideology.

• The war with Iran is still a work-in-progress for Israel and the U.S., with no alternate “regime” waiting to take their place.

• Gulf states need to step up to prevent an Iraq- or a Libya-like collapse, which will destabilize everyone in the region.

The End of the Israeli-Iran Ceasefire and the Beginning of a New Crisis

• The U.S.’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is a significant step in resolving the ongoing conflict.

• The ceasefire gives Iran a chance to back down, a move that could have influenced the U.S. to pressure Israel to stop.

• The announcement also serves as a wakeup call for the Gulf leadership, indicating they are not immune to Iran’s threats.

• The focus now shifts to the nuclear deal, where both the U.S. and Iran may be in a mood to find a solution.

• The next crisis in West Asia is in the making, with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aiming to take out Iran’s nuclear programme.

• The question will be whether Israel will continue to be an apartheid state or become a genuine democracy by giving Palestinians equal rights as its Jewish citizens.

• The Gulf leadership has almost given up pushing Israel for a Palestinian state or stopping the Gaza war as a price for regional stability and integration.

• India’s stand on the Israeli preemptive strikes on Iran is expected to be a key factor in the conflict.

• India has called for a “de-escalation” to minimize the impact of the conflict, equating the aggressor and the aggressed.