‘Rural demand presumably recovered’

• RBI officials report resilient economic activity in India across industrial and services sectors.

• Provisional estimates confirm growth at 6.5% in 2024-25, with a significant sequential pickup in Q4.

• The overall expansion in activity was the highest in India, with the expansion in new export orders being an outlier.

• Manufacturing firms’ capacity utilization remained above the long-period average.

• High-frequency indicators suggest a pickup in rural demand, especially in the agricultural sector.

• Agriculture showed a broad-based increase in production across most major crops during 2024-25.

• Consumer sentiment surveys show stable consumer confidence and improved optimism.

• Moderation in pulse prices and marginal rise in cereal prices up to June 20.

• Protracted trade policy uncertainties and rising trade barriers pose risks to the global economy.