India’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Low Inflation and High Growth

• Retail inflation in August 2025 is expected to remain low, within the RBI’s comfort band of 2%-6%.

• Food inflation is expected to remain subdued at urban and rural levels, with a 15.9% and 14.5% contraction in vegetable and pulse prices respectively.

• Inflation remains low in other necessities such as clothing, footwear, housing, and fuel and light.

• The differential between growth and inflation has increased from 2.1 percentage points to 5.5 percentage points this year.

• The economic impact of India’s decision to abandon its purchase of Russian oil is likely to be limited due to low global crude prices and the cost increase of switching to other countries for oil.

• The new GST rates will come into effect from September 22, impacting the inflation rate.

• Expectations for further interest rate cuts by the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee in its next meeting at the end of September are raised, but this might be premature due to ongoing global uncertainties.

India Economic Outlook is important topic for Civil service exam (WBCS).

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