A note for New Delhi on ‘Trumperica’

• US President Donald Trump issued executive orders, revocation orders of Biden-era decisions, and commitments to the ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) base.

• These actions, referred to as ‘100s of Executive actions in the first 100 hours to kick off America’s Golden Age’, will have lasting implications for the U.S. and the world.

• India’s ties with the U.S. have seen improvement, with positive signs from the Trump administration.

• However, the economic impact of these actions may be deceptive, especially as India prepares for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington and Trump’s visit to India later this year.

• The immigration crackdown by Trump includes specific orders on securing borders, guarding against “invasions” by illegal aliens, designating cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, and advanced vetting of the visa issuance process.

• The actions will affect not only thousands of Indians who travel to the U.S. but also those currently in the U.S., with 7.25 lakh Indians among about 14 million in total undocumented migrants.

• If the Trump administration escalates deportation flights, India will have to deal with the loss of remittances and provide for the returnees, adding to the unemployment crisis in India.

• Any refusal to accept deportations without conditions or face 25% tariffs would incur economic costs.

• The migrant numbers mainly refer largely to blue-collar workers, but other measures are aimed at white-collar, middle-level managers, engineers, and other professionals.

Trump’s Trade Policy and India’s Response to Tariffs

• Trump’s trade policy plans, including an “America First Trade Policy” and a directive to implement an “America First Foreign Policy,” have significant implications for India.

• India must prepare for the potential weaponisation of tariffs by the U.S. to enforce its diktats.

• Trump’s actions may incentivise other countries like China to follow suit.

• The U.S.-China relationship has been a source of confusion, with Trump’s threat of tariffs on China being lower than his initial 60%.

• Trump’s call with China’s President Xi Jinping and a U-turn on the TikTok ban could disrupt calculations.

• Washington’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, the Global Tax Deal, the Paris accord on climate changes, and the freeze of USAID funding worldwide will also impact India.

AI and the ‘AI-Pocalypse’

• The economic consequences of Trump 2.0’s measures will come from his focus on artificial intelligence (AI).

• The launch of the Stargate AI Infrastructure project by Trump could lead to a reduction in the need for foreign migrant ‘techies’.

• The use of AI could make tech professionals redundant, as predicted by Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg.

• India’s trade policy, free trade agreement negotiations, and walkout from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership have been driven by promoting Indian services.

• The new tech tsunami could drown out the hopes of the new generation of Indian tech professionals wishing to migrate.

• New Delhi must consider these tech, trade, and migration trends in its diplomatic negotiations with “Trumperica.”