Asteroid YR4 may miss the Earth, but will it also miss the Moon?

• YR4 was discovered by scientists using the ATLAS telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, in December 2024.

• YR4 is a near-earth asteroid, classified as potentially hazardous if its orbits cross the earth’s and are more than 140 m wide.

• Despite not meeting the 140 m threshold, YR4’s size and trajectory led to NASA’s highest-ever asteroid impact alert in mid-February 2032.

• NASA announced a 3.8% chance YR4 could collide with the moon on December 22, 2032, but there’s still a 96.2% chance it will miss.

• Astronomers use observational data to build computer models to figure out the orbits of these objects.

• As scientists acquire more data, they refine estimates of the asteroid’s size and path and update their models.

• The NASA Sentry website lists the latest impact probability of all asteroids of note using the Torino scale to assess each rock’s hazard to the earth.

• Even if YR4 slams into the moon, the moon’s orbit won’t change but it will gouge out a 500- to 2,000-metre-wide impact crater.

• Astronomers are divided on whether the impact will be visible from the earth, with some suggesting it won’t be visible due to the moon’s brightness.

• Despite YR4’s potential collision with the earth, the planet is still bombarded by rocks from space, like the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor.

• Despite the potential catastrophic collisions, there’s hope as asteroids are the only preventable natural disaster.