If IMD is right, food prices may stay low.

• India’s first monsoon forecast for 2025 predicts an ‘above normal’ monsoon for the second consecutive year.

• The country is expected to receive about 105% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall this year, with an error margin of ± 5%.

• The LPA for southwest monsoon rainfall in the 1971-2020 period was 87 cm.

• Rainfall received is classified as ‘deficient’ if less than 90% of the LPA, ‘below normal’ if between 90% and 95% of LPA, and ‘normal’ if within the 96-104% range.

• An LPA range between 105% and 110%, as the forecast for 2025, is ‘above normal’.

• Dr. Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, Vice Chancellor, Atria University, and former Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, believes that the IMD’s forecasts have improved substantially and that errors have significantly reduced.

• The IMD has been using an advanced statistical model with much more accuracy since 2007, and since 2021, it has been using a “multi model ensemble dynamical system” for generating seasonal forecasts.

• The Indian monsoon is highly susceptible to the vagaries of climate change and global warming, particularly the El Nino and La Nina effect.

• The IMD forecast for this year predicts neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the monsoon, meaning neither El Nino nor La Nina is expected to interfere with the monsoon this year.

• A good monsoon implies good farm output, easing concerns of a rise in food prices.

• Food inflation started easing in January 2025 when it dropped below 6% from over 8% in December 2024.

• A variety of external factors, not just a good monsoon, impact food prices.

• India is expected to produce about 166 million tonnes of foodgrains in 2024-25 according to the second advanced estimates.