IMF reduces global growth over Trump tariffs, policy uncertainty

• IMF’s growth projections have been cut due to higher tariffs and policy uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s near-universal import tariff policy.

• World output in 2025 is projected to grow at 2.8%, half a percentage point less than the January projection.

• In 2026, it is expected to grow at 3%, 0.1 percentage points less than the January forecast.

• For India, growth is forecasted to be 6.2% in the current fiscal year, supported by private consumption, especially in rural areas.

• India’s economic growth for the next fiscal year is projected to be 6.3%.

• Consumer price changes for India are projected to be 4.2% and 4.1% in the current and next fiscal years respectively.

• The IMF’s forecasts are based on tariff and counter-tariff measures announced as of April 4.

• The risks of a global downturn have increased “substantially” from 17% to 30%.