India must reconsider its Arctic strategy

• The Arctic, once a realm of scientific cooperation and environmental protection, is now a hub of military and geopolitical competition.

• Russia, China, and Washington are increasingly assertive in their Arctic ambitions, leading to a renewed phase of strategic contestation.

• Climate change has opened new maritime corridors and resource frontiers, leading to a scramble for access.

• The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is now virtually an open sea lane, potentially redrawing global trade patterns.

• The militarisation of the high north is a concerning development, with Arctic states reopening old military bases, deploying submarines, and reinforcing claims through visible shows of force.

• Non-Arctic powers like India are reassessing their regional postures due to the implications of a militarised Arctic.

• India’s 2022 Arctic Policy, focused on climate science, environmental protection, and sustainable development, underplays the rapidly evolving strategic landscape of the Arctic.

• India’s restrained posture risks relegating it to the margins as regional actors pivot from cooperative science to geopolitical contestation.

• The stakes for India are far from hypothetical, with the NSR becoming more viable and trade flows potentially shifting northwards.

• The blurring of boundaries between the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific is making it harder for India to focus solely on its maritime interests in the south.

• India needs a recalibration of its Arctic engagement, focusing on institutionalizing Arctic engagement beyond science, partnering with like-minded Arctic states on dual-use initiatives, and claiming a seat at the table in new Arctic governance forums.

• India’s current Arctic posture is no longer adequate, relying on the hope that scientific cooperation and climate diplomacy can smooth over growing geopolitical fault lines.