India’s Export Outlook and Challenges

• India’s goods exports saw a sharp decline in Q2, with an average 5.8% shrink in Q1 and a 0.5% rise in September.

• A 17.25% surge in merchandise shipments to overseas markets through October is a positive surprise, with the year’s second-highest tally of $39.2 billion.

• Services exports rose 14.6% by September, with official hopes of cumulative exports through 2024-25 crossing a record $800 billion.

• Non-petroleum exports led the way in October with a 25.6% rise, reaching the highest ever tally for the first seven months of a year, at $211.3 billion.

• India’s oil imports rose 13.2% in October to $18.3 billion, while exports tanked for the fifth straight month, by over 22% to $4.6 billion.

• The oil trade deficit has hit a record $13.7 billion, with the overall import bill reaching a fresh high of $66.3 billion.

• The World Trade Organization pegged global trade growth at 3% in 2025, relative to a 2.7% estimate for this year.

• India must avoid policy gestures such as the updated laptop import management system that could draw the U.S. government’s focus away from its primary trade target – China.