India’s Inflation and Growth Outlook

• The RBI’s inflation band of 2%-6% has been adjusted to a more comfortable range of 2%-6%.

• July’s retail inflation of 1.55%, the lowest since June 2017, was largely due to a contraction in food prices.

• The consensus among economists is that this trend will continue due to improved sowing, a good monsoon, and a favourable base effect.

• Core inflation, which removes the effect of fuel and food, fell to 4.1%, the RBI’s target.

• The outlook for inflation is good, especially due to the progress of the monsoon.

• Risks include a switch from Russian oil to Gulf oil, which is unlikely due to the government’s commitment to prioritizing India’s interests.

• The RBI expects inflation to pick up only from January 2026.

• India is facing a growth slowdown, with the latest growth in the Index of Industrial Production at a 10-month low.

• The contraction in gross direct tax collections this financial year is concerning.

• The RBI retains its forecast of 6.5% growth this financial year, but structural problems, weak demand, and a temporary dip in inflation are not enough to mitigate the impact.

India Inflation Growth Outlook is important topic for Civil service exam (WBCS).

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