Interpreting the recent Bangladesh-Pakistan thaw

Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy and the 1971 Liberation War

• The 1971 war’s legacy has shaped Bangladesh-Islamabad relations.

• Recent bilateral engagement shows Dhaka’s intent to diversify its foreign policy trajectory in the subcontinent.

• Since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024, there have been meetings between Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Adviser to the interim Bangladesh government, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

• The absence of engagement between Yunus and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicates a shifting relationship.

Recent Developments

• Under Yunus’ leadership, ties have strengthened, with Bangladesh hosting a high-level Pakistani military delegation in Rangpur and a rare visit by Lieutenant-general S.M. Kamr-ul-Hassan to Rawalpindi.

• Dhaka has resumed direct flights to Islamabad and participated in Pakistan’s Aman 2025 naval exercises in the Arabian Sea.

Ground Reality Challenges

• Dhaka will face challenges in managing public opinion due to the deeply ingrained historic grievance of Bangladesh’s separation from Pakistan.

• A partnership with Islamabad will offer limited gains for Dhaka due to the misalignment between the economic realities of both countries.

• The geographical separation of Bangladesh and Pakistan by Indian territory is likely to create connectivity and political hurdles for smooth trade.

India’s Approach to Bangladesh

• India’s approach to Bangladesh should be grounded in understanding the economic and geographical realities.

• Despite the evolving nature of Dhaka-Islamabad ties, Bangladesh will find it challenging to adopt an overtly anti-India stance due to its geographical proximity and economic dependence on India.

• India must clarify its red lines with Bangladesh in critical areas such as terrorism, weapons trade, joint military drills, and maritime security.

• New Delhi should also constructively engage with Bangladesh, emphasizing people-to-people contacts, cultural exchanges, and developmental projects.