Is Bihar’s high replacement rate due to poverty?

• The Sample Registration System report for 2021 shows India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at 2.0 in 2021, the same as in 2020.

• Delhi and West Bengal reported the lowest TFR of 1.4, while Bihar reported the highest at 3.0.

• Saswata Ghosh and Prasenjit Bose discuss the link between high TFR and poverty in Bihar.

• Bihar’s infant mortality rate has declined from 42 to 27 per 1,000 live births, but the state’s TFR remains high.

• Prasenjit Bose argues that cultural factors and other economic factors like urbanization, employment opportunities, and livelihood opportunities are not fully captured by the Multidimensional Poverty (MDP) estimates.

• Both estimates suggest that poverty is decreasing and so is the TFR.

The Fertility Rate in Bihar: A Study of Urban and Rural Areas

• The total fertility rate (TFR) in India is 1.6, while in Bihar it is 2.3.

• The high TFR in urban areas, where affluent and educated societies live, is attributed to conscious choice of fertility.

• Despite a decline in infant mortality rate and higher use of contraception, the fertility rate in Bihar remains high.

• The State of Bihar is primarily an agricultural economy, with surplus labour and migration linked to high levels of illiteracy and a dysfunctional primary education system.

• Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has emphasized the importance of education for reducing the fertility rate.

• There is a positive correlation between education and TFR and household affluence and higher educational attainment.

• However, a significant share of families end up with a large family size due to the low probability of having two sons successively.

• Women are getting educated more, but they have low employability and limited exposure to the outside world.

• A study found that women in the reproductive age group of 15-49 years were not allowed to directly interact with ASHA workers due to restrictions by their mother-in-laws.

• The literacy rate in Bihar, particularly female literacy, remains low, with a 2011 Census female literacy rate of about 53%.

Delimitation Debate in India: A Political Context

• North India states like Pradesh and Rajasthan have high fertility rates, while the fertility rate is declining in the south.

• This leads to a disproportionate share of the country’s population in these states.

• The representative democracy system, ‘one person, one vote, one value’, will likely lead to a large disproportionate size of parliamentary and Assembly constituencies.

• States with high Total Fertility Rate (TFR) will have a large number of people represented by a single MP, while States with low or falling TFR will have fewer MPs.

• The question is whether these states will be rewarded or punished for reducing TFR.

• The allocation of resources by the Finance Commission is based on population size.

• Policymakers must correct the divergent trend and bring a convergent trend.