Is Syria going to peace or chaos?

• Syria has entered a three-month period of political and military uncertainty following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.
• Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa seeks international legitimacy while navigating internal instability.
• His government has reached a significant agreement with the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), integrating their military and administrative structures into the Syrian state.
• Conflict persists, with Israel expanding control in the Golan Heights under the pretext of counterterrorism.
• The country’s economy remains crippled by Assad-era sanctions, hindering reconstruction efforts.

Interim Leader Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Role
• Al-Sharaa, leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rebranded itself as a governing authority, pledging to respect minority rights.
• The new administration lacks full territorial control, with Assad’s loyalists operating in the coastal region of Latakia and the SDF in the northeastern semi-independent Rojava region.

State of Conflict
• Despite the disintegration of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), loyalist cells continue resisting, particularly in Latakia, an Alawite stronghold.
• Israel intensified military operations, launching over 400 airstrikes in December 2024.
• Reports of Alawite massacres have escalated in Latakia since December.

Risk of Further Violence
• Syria remains one of the poorest states in the world, with over 90% of the population living under the poverty line.
• The future of Syria hinges on the drafting and enforcement of a new constitution that guarantees minority rights and national sovereignty.