Kurds seek statehood amid regional unrest

• West Asia is experiencing a geo-engineering flux, with the Palestinian issue at a pivotal moment.

• The Israeli government’s hard-line stance is at odds with the Arab States’ insistence on a two-state solution for the Abraham Accords’ expansion.

• Iran has agreed to negotiate its nuclear programme after the loss of regional proxies and the resumption of American “maximum pressure” tactics and military threat.

• The toppling of the al-Assad regime has created new paradigms.

• Turkey’s ambitions to reshape Syria are battling an Intefadah at home.

• The decline of oil prices by a fifth in 2025 may upend the regional economic stability.

• U.S. President Donald Trump is set to visit the Gulf next month.

Kurds’ Quest for Statehood

• Kurds are the world’s largest ethnic minority without a state of their own.

• Their common identity is shaped by a shared history and the craggy geography of Asia Minor.

• Most Kurds are Sunni Muslims, but are linked to other regional ethnic minorities, such as Yezidis, Alevi, and Zoroastrianism.

• The Kurdish quest for a state has remained unrequited, with the nearest realization at the Treaty of Sevres in 1920.

• Turkish repression has led to the formation of PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) by Abdullah Öcalan, which has waged a campaign for Kurdish independence.

Kurdish Self-Defence Force (SDF) and Iraqi Kurds’ Situation

• The 13-year civil war in Syria has given Kurds a chance to fill the politicostrategic vacuum.

• The Kurdish Self-Defence Force (SDF) was created with American support to fight the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.

• The SDF currently controls nearly 40% of Syria, causing threat perceptions in Ankara.

• Turkey has attempted to checkmate the SDF by creating exclusion zones and forming a militia against it.

• The SDF’s success may diminish with the planned attenuation of American military presence in Syria.

Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and Iran’s Situation

• The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) was formed in 1992 after the U.S. Operation Desert Storm weakened Iraqi hold over Kurds.

• The KRG has sought to assert its autonomy, often creating a conflict with Baghdad authorities.

• Turkish armed forces have been active in hitting alleged PKK targets in KRG.

Iranian Kurds’ Situation

• Iranian regimes have been marginally benign to its Kurds, mostly living in the northwest along the geo-strategic faultlines.

• There are strong ethnic and cultural ties between Kurds and Persians, and some modern Iranian dynasties were partly of Kurdish origin.

• With the weakening of the Iranian state and the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Tehran, Iranian Kurds may feel encouraged to secede.

Potential of Kurdish Statehood

• Recent weakening of central authority in Iraq and Syria has brightened the prospects of Kurdish statehood.

• These proto-states lack a unifying ideology or transnational political entity to dovetail their statehood to the emerging grand Western strategy for West Asia.