Macron’s Political Gambles and France’s Crisis

• Macron’s snap legislative election in June failed to secure a new mandate for his centrist coalition and prevent the rise of the far-right National Rally.

• Michel Barnier, a conservative Republican Party leader, was chosen to form the government, leading to a collapse within three months.

• Macron’s coalition, Assembly, and Republicans, which finished second in the elections, lack a majority (289 seats) to pass bills in Parliament.

• Bayrou’s government, with 33 seats in the National Assembly, is at risk of being dependent on Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally for survival.

• France’s fiscal deficit has risen to 6.1% of GDP, worse than Greece, Spain, and Italy.

• France’s debt has ballooned to €3.2 trillion, more than 112% of its GDP.

• Bayrou’s immediate task is to get an emergency budget passed in Parliament, which will involve negotiations with the far-right.

• Macron’s refusal to accept shifting political dynamics and appointing unpopular leaders prolongs the crisis.

• If Macron was serious about ‘institutional stability’, he should have sought a coalition with the largest bloc, the Left, and helped them rule based on a consensus-driven political and economic programme.