Minerals wager

• The US and Ukraine have signed an agreement to grant the US access to Ukraine’s critical minerals and oil and gas resources through a joint investment fund.

• The deal was proposed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last year as part of his “victory plan” to open up Ukraine’s vast untapped resources.

• After Donald Trump assumed the presidency, he supported a minerals deal, insisting that Kyiv repay the billions of dollars provided as military and economic assistance during the war by granting U.S. companies access to Ukraine’s resources.

• The agreement does not reference aid as debt in the fine print, but future American assistance will be considered as capital contributions to the fund.

• The deal underscores Kyiv’s growing vulnerabilities in a war that shows no sign of abating.

• Ukraine’s hopes for the deal to ensure continued flow of U.S. military assistance are limited.

• The minerals deal will only pay off if the Trump administration stays committed to helping end the war.