Monsoon anticipation

• India Meteorological Department predicts ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall from June to September, 5% more than the historical average of 87 cm.

• This could lead to a second consecutive year of ‘above normal’ rains.

• Last year, India received 8% more monsoon rain than typical from June to September.

• This is beneficial for kharif sowing, improving grain stocks and export reserves.

• The government has committed to procuring pulses at minimum support prices to reduce import bill.

• The IMD uses a two-stage system of monsoon forecasts: the first in April and an update in mid-May.

• The absence of an El Niño is expected, indicating good monsoon conditions for India.

• The ‘Eurasian snow cover’ parameter, which was ‘below normal’ in January-March 2025, has an ‘inverse relationship’ with that year’s summer monsoon rainfall.

• The IMD uses weather models that simulate the ocean and the atmosphere for its monsoon forecasts.

• Past years with above normal rainfall have brought flooding and landslides, exacerbated by global warming.