Myanmar, Manipur, and border tensions

• Northeast India has experienced periods of insurgency, but recent political developments in Myanmar have increased stress.

• The military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 led to civil disobedience and armed resistance, causing the Myanmar military to cede control over large parts of the country.

• The Tatmadaw military used indiscriminate force, often bombarding civilian areas.

Refugee Movement in Northeast India

• The Free Movement Regime (FMR) was established after Independence to facilitate cross-border trade and livelihoods.

• However, the recent violent conflict in Myanmar has led to a large-scale refugee movement into India, negatively impacting India’s border management strategies.

• As of December 31, 2024, approximately 95,600 refugees from Myanmar had moved into India, with 73,400 reaching India after the recent military coup.

• The influx of refugees has generated diverse responses in India’s Northeastern States, with some showing empathy for the refugees due to their shared ethnic identity.

• Concerns have been raised in Manipur about the influx of refugees disrupting the fragile ethnic balance and becoming an important variable in the Meitei-Kuki conflict.

China’s Response to Myanmar’s Political Instability

• China has fenced a few critical sections of its border with Myanmar to prevent unauthorised movement.

• India, not a member of the UNSC, must operate within the liberal democratic framework.

• India must craft a more comprehensive response to developments in Myanmar to prevent Manipur from continuing to fester.

Urgent Requirements

• To ensure peace, the consolidation of unhealthy relationships between Indian insurgent groups and armed groups across the border needs to be arrested.

• There is an urgent need to provide increased humanitarian relief and develop healthcare and educational infrastructure in Myanmar near the border with Manipur and Mizoram in India.

• India and select Myanmar’s neighbours must move towards a more federal democratic polity.

• With political uncertainty in Bangladesh and the civil war in Myanmar, the prospect of Northeast India’s enhanced external economic engagement is dim.