No truce

Russia’s Use of Ukraine’s Chasm Among Allies

• Ukraine and Russia held their first direct meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, last week.

• The meeting resulted in only one agreement on swapping 1,000 prisoners of war each.

• Ukraine’s delegation criticized Russia for making “new and unacceptable demands.”

• The meeting was a result of the dithering by Kyiv’s key ally, the U.S.

• Kyiv’s European allies had urged Moscow to agree to a 30-day ceasefire, or face increased sanctions and weapon transfer to Ukraine.

• President Trump stated that a peace deal could only be negotiated between Russia and Ukraine, with possible help from the Pope.

• Despite diplomatic uncertainty, Russia continues to demand security guarantees for Ukraine and its demilitarisation.

• Russia continues to launch attacks, while Kyiv rallies its European allies to support it militarily.

• With Trump’s inconsistent position, Kyiv may have to choose between accommodating Russia’s territorial demands or endure attritional war with limited support.