Pakistan in the U.S.-West Asia equation

• U.S. President Donald Trump announced military strikes against three Iranian nuclear installations on June 22, a significant event that could alter West Asia’s future.

• Previous western interventions in Iraq (1992 and 2002) and Libya (2011) resulted in quick military outcomes but long-term destabilization.

• Trump warned of ‘far greater’ attacks if Iran doesn’t’make peace’.

• Iranian Foreign Minister AbbasAraqchi stated that Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people.

Impact on Sub-Continent Situation

• The U.S. strike was preceded by Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Munir’s meeting with President Trump.

• Munir’s meeting was an unprecedented departure from protocol, as India-Pakistan hostilities ended a month ago.

• Pakistan was praised in a Senate hearing by General Michael Kurilla, the head of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), for its role in countering terrorism and the arrest and extradition of Mohd. Sharifullah, accused of killing 13 U.S. soldiers.

U.S.’s Importance of West Asia

• The U.S. sees West Asia more important than South Asia due to its large economic stakes in the region.

• Trump extracted over $3 trillion worth of investment commitments from Gulf monarchies during his recent visit to the region.

Pakistan-Iran Relations

• Pakistan has a complex relationship with Iran, competing for influence in Afghanistan and the possession of nuclear weapons.

• Pakistan can play a role in isolating Iran in case of a conflict with Israel.

• On June 15, Pakistan announced the closure of its land borders with Iran, except for the return of Pakistani nationals.

Pakistan’s Relations with the Trump Administration and its Ideology

• Pakistan received a fresh commitment of $1.4 billion under the climate resilience program of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during recent hostilities with India.

• President Trump’s intervention helped Pakistan neutralize Indian armed forces and strike a critical facility near Nur Khan Air Base in Rawalpindi.

• Pakistan’s FY2025-26 budget increased defence outlay by more than 17%, with an overall defence outlay of 3.29 trillion Pakistani rupees ($11.65 billion).

• The development sector has seen a 50% reduction to 1 trillion Pakistani rupees in the recent budget.

• Pakistan is heavily indebted, with the interest payment of 8.207 trillion Pakistani rupees accounting for 74.14% of the federal government’s revenue share of 11.07 trillion Pakistani rupees.

• The total expenditure on account of defence and debt service exceeds Islamabad’s share of revenue.

• General Munir’s April speech focused on suppressing the Baloch national struggle, which is strategically important as it borders the Sistan-Balochistan province of Iran.

• The U.S.’s entry into the Iran-Israel war could have been a better timing for Pakistan’s economic recovery.

• The sectarian divide in Pakistan has coloured its relations with Iran, leading to an increase in attacks by Sunni extremist groups on Shia pilgrims.

• A tacit understanding with the U.S. on Iran could hold the fort but will have a domestic cost.