The Fall of Bashar al-Assad and the Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria

• Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed, leaving the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as the most powerful force in the country.

• Assad’s victory was hollow, relying on external allies for security and his army was in poor shape.

• The fall of Assad was made possible by factors beyond his direct control, including the Israel-Hamas war, weakening armed forces, and the shift in focus from Iran to Russia.

• The HTS, backed by Turkey, took advantage of the weakening alliance, reaching Damascus in just 12 days.

• With Assad gone, Syria has an opportunity to build a new future, but the key actors of change are far from promising.

• The HTS aims to turn Syria into an Islamic state, with the Syrian National Army being a Turkish proxy.

• The outcome of the transition government, disarming of militias, and the establishment of an inclusive new republic is uncertain due to Syria’s tumultuous history, societal fissures, and the ideological characteristics of the militias.