The Manipur approach paradox

• The stalemate in Manipur conflict has resulted in over 250 deaths and thousands of internally displaced persons living in sub-human makeshift relief centers.

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi has refused to visit the State and offer a definitive road map to break the impasse, contrasting with the priority accorded to the Pahalgam terror strike on April 22, which led to the curtailment of his official visit to Saudi Arabia.

• The stand-off and terms of the understanding/ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan are a focus of the nation’s attention, indicating a lack of serious attention to Manipur’s ongoing human tragedy and political impasse.

• New Delhi’s approach to Manipur is characterized by its obsession with national security and regime consolidation. Unlike Kashmir, Manipur does not present an imminent threat to India’s national security.

• Despite efforts to blame Manipur’s violence on ‘lungi-clad’ Kuki armed militants across the India-Myanmar border, the policy mandarins in Delhi have been muted on the more serious threat posed by the large-scale mobilisation of valley-based insurgent groups (VBIGs) since May 3, 2023.

• This stance has neutralised the security gains India has achieved since flushing out VBIGs from their safe havens in the valley areas in Operation All-Clear (2004).

The Obsolete Outlook of India’s Border Fencing Policy

• New Delhi’s push for revoking the free movement regime and spending over ₹31,000 crore for fencing the India-Myanmar border is seen as an obsolete security overdrive.

• This policy may cater to perceived insecurity by majoritarian groups and suit the pork-barrel brand of politics with promissory collateral benefits to contractors and brokers.

• The lines of divide are evident as the Naga, and Mizo, among others, have registered their staunch opposition.

• The policy framework needs to win the hearts and minds of transborder people to augment India’s national security and promote India’s neighbourhood first policy via the Act East policy.

• A longitudinal assessment of India’s national security policy framework reveals it is driven more by political optics than by upskilling security infrastructure.

• Despite the public spectacle of holding piecemeal arms surrender events, no sincere effort is made to recover sophisticated arms and ammunition given away to armed groups since the outbreak of violence.

• An incremental approach may be key to gradually stabilising law and order.

• The easy and abundant availability of arms and ammunition in the hands of armed groups in the State is likely to perpetuate the ethnic security dilemma.

• A halting, yet incremental return to normalcy may impel serious political engagements with rival stakeholders that simultaneously accommodate legitimate demands and promote trust and legitimacy to state institutions.