The ring of fire around Iran is tightening

• On March 7, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seeking a deal on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
• The US launched pre-emptive air strikes against Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen and resumed bombing of Gaza, killing over 400 Palestinians and ending the fragile ceasefire.
• Israel carried out its heaviest air strikes in Lebanon since the November ceasefire, targeting Hezbollah, a key Iranian non-state ally.
• The US and Israel continue to escalate attacks on Iran’s axis of resistance, ratcheting up pressure on the Islamic Republic.
• The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) curtailed Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb, but left its nuclear processing capabilities, extensive ballistic missile programme, and support for the axis untouched.
• In May 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement and reimposed sanctions on Iran, effectively sabotaging the agreement.
• Iran stepped up its nuclear programme, enhanced support for the network, particularly the Houthis, and expanded its weapons capabilities.
• The October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas in Israel led to Israel’s mini-regional war, which initially faltered due to Israel’s focus on Gaza and Iran’s retaliation.
• Israel’s high casualties and failure to halt Hezbollah’s rocket attacks led to a ceasefire in November 2024.
• Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear programme, with enough stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to make six nuclear bombs if further enriched to weapons-grade purity.

Changing Regional Dynamics and Trump’s Role in Israel’s War

• The election of Donald Trump has given Israel confidence to continue its mini-regional war without external pressure.
• The fall of Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria disrupted Iran’s regional axis, weakening Hezbollah’s military strength and weakening Iran’s overall deterrence.
• Israel’s approach to the conflict has been reshaped, with Israel refusing to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon and Gaza, and resuming bombing the Houthis.
• The real target for Israel is Iran itself, with the weakened axis and the Assad regime making the Iranian regime more vulnerable.
• Trump’s offer for dialogue is seen as a response to Iran’s shrinking strategic space.
• Iran’s shrinking strategic space, Israel’s growing aggression, and the impossibility of diplomatic common ground between the US and Iran make the risk of a large-scale military confrontation higher than ever.
• Israel has two broad military options: heavy air strikes to cripple Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, or a full-scale regime change war.
• The final question is whether Trump would commit to an all-out war against Iran if his diplomatic push fails.