The Trump card, global politics, and India

Donald Trump’s Approach to International Order

• Trump’s approach to the “rules-based international order” is characterized by an “America First” doctrine.

• He rejects multilateralism and international agreements that do not favor the US.

• Trump prefers bilateral agreements over multilateral ones, such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

• He dismisses international institutions like the United Nations and regional bodies like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Donald Trump’s Transactionalism

• Trump’s MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) policy will influence global geopolitics, leading to a rise in protectionism in global trade, escalating tariffs and trade wars, and increased economic uncertainty.

• His scepticism about global institutions will inspire adventurism in global politics and nationalisms that override international law.

• American isolationism under MAGA could encourage powers like China and Russia to expand their global footprint.

Ties with India and the Line for New Delhi

• India-U.S. relations have seen a steady evolution and multi-faceted growth over the last two decades.

• India has stressed constructive engagement with the U.S. as a key strategic partner.

• India’s Indo-Pacific vision stresses regional cooperation, multilateralism, and multipolarity.

• India’s strategic priorities include border security, a strong defense posture, military modernisation, intensified counterterrorism efforts, and a focus on fighting cross-border terrorism.

• India’s strategic future includes digital transformation, space exploration, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and building resilience against cyber threats.

• The relationship with Russia must continue to be in focus due to the complex and diversified nature of India’s strategic partnership with that country.

The Reality of the Second Trump Presidency

• The reality of the second Trump Presidency indicates that established patterns of history and geopolitics may no longer apply as the positioning system for a disruptive, polarised, and unstable global order.