Trump affected Canada’s election, but not as he expected.

Justin Trudeau’s Resignation and the Liberal Party’s Election Turnaround

• Justin Trudeau’s resignation led to a significant electoral victory for the Liberal Party, which trailed the Conservatives by 25 points.

• Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, criticized Trudeau’s three consecutive terms as “the lost decade” for Canada.

• Mark Carney, an economist and former banker, was chosen as Trudeau’s successor, reframe the election as an opportunity to rebuild Canada’s economy.

• Donald Trump’s rhetoric about making Canada “the 51st State” of the U.S. fueled Canadian nationalism and offered a new perspective to Carney’s electoral battle.

• The Conservatives won 41.4% of the vote, surpassing their 2011 majority with 39.6% votes.

• The Liberals’ popularity surged from 32.6% to 43.5%, while the New Democratic Party’s vote share plummeted from 18% in 2021 to 6%.

• Despite the Liberals’ popularity, they are projected to fall short of the 172-seat majority mark in the Parliament.

• Carney and Trump agree that the traditional relationship between Canada and the U.S. is over, necessitating talks for a new economic and security framework.