Trump’s Diplomatic Turn in Ukraine War

• President Trump orders two nuclear submarines to be positioned in response to provocative statements by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

• Trump’s threats of imposing tariffs on Russia are seen as a step towards war.

• Trump has expressed growing frustration with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war.

• Trump has threatened secondary “penalty” tariffs on countries that trade with Russia such as India and China.

• Despite pressure from Ukraine to accept a ceasefire proposal and Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO, Trump has only managed to extract a limited truce in the Black Sea and a temporary pause in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

• The impasse lies in divergent views in western capitals and Moscow on how to end the war.

• Russia finds little incentive to de-escalate at a time when its troops have strategic momentum.

• Trump’s decision to bomb Iran on behalf of Israel has hardened Russia’s position.

• Instead of escalating the crisis, Trump must reflect on why America’s current approach – combining sanctions against Russia with military support for Ukraine – has failed to deter Putin.