Balochistan—what’s happening?

• On March 11, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked a train with 400 passengers between Quetta and Sibi, Pakistan.
• BLA demanded the release of their compatriots from prison in exchange for the remaining passengers.
• Pakistan’s government launched a military operation to free the passengers, resulting in 21 civilian fatalities and four Frontier Corps personnel deaths.
• The incident demonstrates the insurgents’ ability to launch massive attacks on Pakistan’s security forces and their ability to withstand special forces’ firepower for over 24 hours.
• The incident also shows improved coordination between various Baloch insurgent groups.
• The Balochistan independence movement has not received significant international support due to its geographical location and geographical proximity to India.
• The Baloch Republican Guards (BRG) and the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) collaborate under the banner of Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), aiming to launch coordinated attacks on Pakistan’s military infrastructure and intelligence apparatus.
• Balochistan has witnessed multiple insurgencies in the past, including those in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and mid-2000s.
• Alongside armed insurgency, there is a people’s movement advocating for improved access to basic necessities, tackling rising commodity costs, regulating Chinese fishing trawlers, and ensuring unhindered access to the sea for fishermen.
• The Pakistani government has attempted to portray discontent in Balochistan as a result of power contestations, but many in Balochistan complain that their province was forcefully incorporated into Pakistan in 1948 and that the exploitation of natural resources has not improved local people’s livelihoods.

Balochistan’s Unrest and Geopolitical Context

Infrastructure Projects and Population Migration
• Massive infrastructure projects like the Gwadar Port, part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), were operationalized without stakeholder consultation.
• These projects led to migration from different parts of the country, causing concerns about demographic shifts impacting the local Baloch population.
• Insurgent groups protest against the CPEC and call for China’s withdrawal from the province.
• Concerns have been raised about the Pakistan army’s ability to provide security to Chinese personnel working on CPEC projects.

Regional Complexities
• The geopolitical context has not been conducive to the success of the Baloch insurgent movement.
• The province, which accounts for 44% of Pakistan’s landmass, has approximately 5% of the population.
• The Balochistan independence movement has not received significant international support.
• Iran is concerned that anti-Iranian groups are finding a haven in the neighbouring Balochistan province.

Geopolitical Shifts
• The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has led to significant geopolitical shifts in the region.
• There is a growing rift between the Taliban and the Pakistan army, with occasional skirmishes on the borders.
• The presence of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has increased in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan.

Lack of Popular Support
• Pakistan’s domestic politics will define the trajectory of unrest in Balochistan.
• The military-civilian leadership’s hold on power is attributed to its closeness to the military rather than its popularity among the masses.
• Decentralizing power and sharing revenues from resource extraction with the people of Balochistan would be prudent.