‘Axis of Upheaval’ in West Asia conflict

• The war between Israel and Iran has led to a ceasefire, highlighting the global power divide.

• Iran’s main partners, China and Russia, maintain distance due to the political and military decapitation of leadership and capacity.

• Iran’s axis, dubbed as the ‘Axis of Upheaval’, has been central to the narrative of the global order’s perceived fracturing.

• Russia’s war against Ukraine has relied heavily on Iranian drone technologies.

• Despite regional differences, Moscow and Tehran have once joined hands to stabilize the government of the ousted Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad.

• China has gained by continuing to buy cheap oil from Iran, providing Beijing with financial support and boosting Tehran’s growth.

• There are no treaties that bind these states into military blocs, indicating a gap in taking on western influence.

• Russia and China have made statements in favor of Iran as a way of support, criticized those backing Israel’s actions, and offered mediation.

• Iran has comprehensive strategic partnerships with Putin (2025) and China’s President Xi Jinping (2021), primarily economic in nature.

• Russia’s war against Ukraine has tied down most of its political and military capabilities, and North Korea is providing soldiers to arrest its depleting military depth.

• China has also come out in support of Iran, demanding the U.S. orchestrate a de-escalation.

• The U.S.-backed ceasefire is holding Tehran and Tel Aviv at bay, potentially relocating critical military assets away from the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine.

• The future of Iran may be shaped by the point that only nuclear power can guarantee sovereignty.