China-led trilateral alliance as India’s new threat

• China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh held their first trilateral meeting in Kunming, China, focusing on cooperation and deeper engagement.

• The trilaterals, led by China, come at a time of Pakistan’s lack of relevance to the region, India’s increasing relations with Afghanistan, and deteriorating ties with Bangladesh.

The 1962 War and its Impact on Alignments

• The 1962 war between India and China shaped regional alignments and geopolitics.

• Post-war, China found Pakistan as an ally to keep India engaged with immediate threats and limit it from challenging Beijing’s interests, security, and status.

• Pakistan is highly dependent on China for assistance, investments, and infrastructure development.

• By the end of 2024, Pakistan had a loan of over $29 billion from China.

• Over 80% of Pakistan’s arms imports are from China.

The Resurfacing of the Idea of Using South Asian Countries

• The idea of using South Asian countries against India has resurfaced as both China and Pakistan face a confident India.

• India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, halting trade, restricting port access, and targeting military installations have damaged Pakistan’s military’s operational capacities and confidence.

• India’s military and diplomatic responses to Chinese border intrusions in Doklam and Galwan have taken Beijing by surprise.

China’s Progress in South Asia

• India’s pragmatic engagement and domestic politics of the region have slowed down China’s momentum in South Asia.

• In the Maldives, Beijing appears reluctant to trust President Mohamed Muizzu and the country’s economy.

• In Nepal, major differences in funding remain unresolved and the progress of projects has been slow.

• In Sri Lanka, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is developing close ties with India by respecting its redlines.

China’s Trilaterals with Afghanistan and Bangladesh

• Before their respective regime changes in 2021 and 2024, both countries were staunch supporters of India’s fight against both Pakistan and its state-sponsored terrorism.

• Pakistan has increased security, economic, and political engagements with the new government in Bangladesh.

• Pakistan’s influence, supported by China and its economic clout, could create new terror and security-related challenges.

China’s Efforts and Setbacks

• The developments in the region demonstrate that China, not Pakistan, is India’s biggest challenge.

• South Asian countries will have to learn to balance between India and China, as Beijing uses Islamabad to create new complexities in the region.