An atomic tug of war

• The US and Iran have begun talks about Iran’s controversial nuclear program.

• Iran had previously refused direct talks with the US after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

• Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme due to increasing pressure from Israel, loss of an ally in Syria, and economic difficulties.

• President Trump offered dialogue, stating he could not let Iran have a nuclear bomb.

• Iran, a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), ceased cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after the 1979 revolution.

• Iran has been accused of pursuing a clandestine nuclear program, with allegations of designing an atom bomb.

• Iran’s uranium enrichment story is complex, with U-235 making up around 0.7% of uranium and U-238 being the rest.

• Iran’s enrichment technology is centrifuges, which spin their contents at several thousand revolutions per minute.

• If Iran’s steps towards its first nuclear weapon are similar to China’s in 1964, it will need “probably less than three weeks” between gaseous weapons-grade uranium and a bomb.

• The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) promised to remove international sanctions on Iran in return for the removal of most of its centrifuges, limiting enrichment to 3.67%, and capping its LEU stockpile at 300 kg.

• Iran’s centrifuges could produce 168-269 kg of 60% high-enriched uranium in “up to two weeks” (assuming 1% tails and 54% feed enrichment).

• Iran’s centrifuges also raise questions about how quickly it can assemble a bomb.

• Iran’s growing stockpile of HEU and shrinking breakout time have set alarm bells in Israel, with Tel Aviv indicating it will not hesitate to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities.

• President Trump has threatened Iran with military action if the talks fail, but he also wants to try diplomacy before that.