How post-Assad Syria affects China

China’s Foreign Policy and Support for Arab Positions

• China has consistently supported Arab positions over Gaza, including hosting Hamas in Beijing.

• Recent surveys have placed the United States below its eastern competition in popularity.

China’s Position in Syria

• The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has opened a security crisis for China.

• Uyghur militants in the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) have gained prominent positions in the revised Syrian army.

• Uyghur militias have been woven into the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) since the early stages of the Arab Spring.

Uyghur Militias in Syria’s ‘New’ Military

• In Syria’s ‘new’ military, those who fought alongside Al Sharaa have been given precedence.

• One of the biggest representations overall is by the Uyghurs, nearing 2,000 in number.

Impact of Big Power Competition

• This elevation opens an automatic fault line with Damascus, with which China has enjoyed friendly relations in the past.

• The advent of big power competition between the U.S. and China has given militant groups more manoeuvring space globally.

The Western Game Plan

• The Chinese government has raised this issue in the United Nations as western and regional powers rush to engage with Al Sharaa.

• The western engagements aim to place basic security in the embattled state and stem any mass migration.

• The challenge for Chinese diplomacy continues with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates accepting al Sharaa, limiting Beijing’s options and forcing a strategic re-think moving forward.