How the Ba’ath Party’s six-decade rule in Syria ended abruptly

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist militant group, prepared for a large-scale offensive against Bashar al-Assad’s forces.

• The HTS and its ally, Syrian National Army (SNA), had been informing Turkiye, their patron, about the offensive plan six months ago.

• Assad’s troops were in poor shape, with poor pay, lack of motivation, and crippling American sanctions.

• The HTS launched its offensive on November 27, the day Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire.

• The HTS’s victory in Aleppo triggered rebellion elsewhere in Syria, with local militias and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) advancing towards Deir Ezzour and Deir Ezzour.

• Assad turned to Iran and Russia for help, but both countries declined to assist him.

• The HTS advanced towards Homs, a strategically important city, and entered Damascus first.

• The fall of the regime left a significant vacuum in Syria, with four major rebel coalitions: HTS, local militias, SDF, and Alawites.

• External players such as Turkiye, Jordan, Gulf Arabs, Iran, Russia, and Israel are threatening the country’s diverse set of militias and the country’s military capabilities.