India’s place in Russia-Ukraine peace-making

• India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv, potential meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the travels of National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar suggest India’s determination to help resolve the Russia-Ukraine war.
• India’s engagement with all parties and its role as an interlocutor is evident, with Modi “briefing” US President Joseph Biden and Doval tasked to “brief” Putin about the Ukraine visit.
• India’s long-held beliefs on non-alignment and strategic autonomy, which have been largely carried forward during the war, help its image as an “honest broker” or mediator.
• India’s G-20 presidency focused on war outcomes such as energy and food security that matter to the developing world, leading to a six-fold increase in bilateral trade.
• India’s aim in his third term is to build a global legacy, similar to how Jawaharlal Nehru did by mediating between the USSR and Austria for the withdrawal of Soviet troops in exchange for a policy of neutrality.
• If India does essay such a role, a thorough assessment of the situation, including the state of war in Ukraine, is needed.
• The Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is seeking further escalation in the war, including western permissions for the longrange Storm Shadow missiles and Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACM) for airstrikes deep inside Russia.
• The U.S. elections on November 5 could also influence the U.S.’s support for Ukraine.

India’s Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

• India needs to propose a unique proposal for conflict resolution or deescalation, considering the rejection of previous proposals by both sides.
• Putin and Zelenskyy have rejected proposals that involve giving up ground, such as the Bürgenstock Communiqué.
• China has rejected the Brazil-China joint proposal, which proposed measures towards a path of “de-escalation.”
• India’s position in Berlin includes a four-point principle: this is not the era of war; there are no solutions on the battlefield; Russia must be at the table for talks; and India is concerned and engaged to find a resolution to the conflict.
• India’s role as a mediator or host for a summit between Moscow and Kyiv would require its heft, diplomatic goodwill, and other resources.
• Consistency would be the key word, as India’s internal conflicts, economic revival, regional turbulence, and other important issues could question the need to spend resources on this conflict.
• India’s response to potential openings with Pakistan could be influenced by the consistency of its message.
• The balance of pull and push factors will decide how far New Delhi will go as a peace-maker in the Russia-Ukraine war.