Instead of vengeance, a paradigm shift

• The Pahalgam terror attack, the first of its kind targeting civilians since the Mumbai 2008 attacks, has shifted the strategic community’s course.

• The attack aimed to terrorize Indians, disrupt the Kashmiri economy, and instigate communal tensions.

• The government has announced diplomatic measures, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), and has given the defence forces permission to plan a military operation.

• A long-term response to the attack should not seek revenge or retaliation but serve as a deterrent and change cross-border behavior patterns.

• India’s responses to similar attacks over the past few years should be analyzed, including the 2001 Parliament attack, the Mumbai attacks, the 2007 Samjhauta Express train attack, the Pathankot attack, and the 2019 bombing of a terror camp in Balakot.

• Given the Pahalgam attack’s deliberate planning, a similar response from India is expected, necessitating three separate strategies: a counterterror strategy, a strategy for retaliation, and a strategy to manage Pakistan’s counterretaliation.

• Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir’s apparent desire to escalate matters with India, his continued popularity of Imran Khan, and the role of China are also areas of misadventure and miscalculation.

• The role of China and the hastily prepared Indian response to the attacks could also be a potential error.

Diplomatic Road Ahead for India

• India needs to counter international pressure to de-escalate the Pahalgam attack, with the US, UK, EU, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others attempting to mediate.

• India’s decision to suspend the International Warrior Task Force (IWT) could face diplomatic backlash from the World Bank and other riparian states.

• India’s UN Security Council statement omitted references to The Resistance Force (TRF), a group linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), and the “Government of India”.

• India must request a UNSC designation of TRF and its leadership and convince the US and others to list the TRF as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO).

• A diplomatic campaign for the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) could be reenergized, using Opposition leaders and Jammu-Kashmir leadership to defend India’s responses.

• The LoC as the border should be reconsidered, as Pakistan’s military has used it as a conduit for recruitment and terrorist attacks.

• The LoC in PoK has completed demographic change, making it ungovernable by India.

• New Delhi must revisit LoC agreement proposals of 2007 to make it a permanent International Border. The international community’s role would be to ensure Pakistan commits to it for lasting equilibrium in the region.