Israel moved the conflict to the ‘axis of resistance’, jeopardizing Iran’s position.

• In April 2024, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, marking a significant violation of Iran’s sovereignty.
• In response, Iran launched a missile attack towards a Mossad base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, marking a violation of Iran’s sovereignty.
• On April 14, Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel, firing over 300 drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles.
• The situation changed in the following months, with key developments in Iran, including the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and the election of Masoud Pezeshkian.
• On July 30, Israel killed Fuad Shukr, a senior commander of Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political chief, in an air strike on a Beirut suburb.
• Both Iran and Hezbollah vowed retaliation, with Iran holding back its fire to give Gaza peace talks a chance.
• Israel, backed by the U.S., was ready for escalation, launching a series of attacks on Hezbollah, including indiscriminate targeting of Hezbollah’s ground functionaries, communication system, and Lebanese civilians.
• Israel launched its fourth ground invasion of Lebanon, aiming to push Hezbollah away from the border region.
• The next stage of the conflict is uncertain, with Hezbollah and Israel not yet meeting their declared objectives in Gaza.
• Iran’s strategic reluctance has not been rewarding, and weakening the axis would weaken Iran’s deterrence, making it more vulnerable to a future Israeli attack.
• If Iran responds with force, it could provide a perfect excuse for Israel to launch direct strikes on Iran, dragging the U.S. into the conflict.