Remaking the Nuclear Order in Western Asia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Nuclear Power Strategy

• Netanyahu aims to maintain Israel as the only nuclear power in the region, preferring the Libyan model.

• He opposes the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 due to its limited uranium enrichment right to Iran.

• Five rounds of talks between U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi have been held since mid-April.

• Progress has been made on the idea of a regional nuclear fuel consortium.

Iran’s Miscalculations

• U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.

• Iran’s leadership misplaced confidence that the U.S. would block any military strike by Israel as long as negotiations continued on a regional enrichment facility.

• Iran underestimated the extent of Mossad’s penetration of its systems, evidenced by the targeted assassinations of its key military leaders and nuclear and missile scientists.

U.S.-Iran Relations and Nuclear Deterrent

• U.S. withdrawal from embassies in the region led to anticipation of Israel’s military action.

• President Trump ordered supportive strikes on June 22, leading to retaliation from Iran.

• Iran’s ambitious civilian nuclear programme has been in existence since the 1950s.

• Both U.S. and Israeli positions agree that Iran cannot have a bomb, but Netanyahu denies Iran any nuclear capabilities.