The long and tortuous path of India-China relations

• Misri met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the Minister of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party, Liu Jianchao.

• The Indian government plans to restore aspects of bilateral relations including media and think tank exchanges, the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, and bilateral flights in summer 2025.

Possible Reasons for the Agreement

• The agreement is a move towards détente after four years of tense relations since the Galwan clashes in June 2020.

• The timing of the agreement could be influenced by the election of Donald Trump and economic concerns in China and India.

• The timing of the agreement may have been pushed by the possibility of Trump’s election and the January 2025 agreement.

India’s Silence on Deescalation, Demilitarisation, and Demobilisation of Troops

• The Indian government has maintained silence on the status of deescalation, demilitarisation, and demobilisation of the large number of troops deployed on the border.

• There is no clarity whether the large number of People’s Liberation Army troops on the Chinese side have retreated to their bases.

India’s Stand on the Border Standoff

• India’s principled stand post-2020 crisis is that stability on the border and restoration of the status quo ante are prerequisites for progress in other aspects of bilateral relations.

• China reiterated that India should move on from the clashes and not let the border standoff hinder the development of overall bilateral relations.

Need for Clarity

• India’s silence on the progress of restoration of status quo ante makes it appear as though the Chinese position of “moving on” is succeeding.

• The process of restoring normalcy will be long and fraught with challenges.

• The worldviews of India and China will remain divergent, necessitating abundant caution.