What will decide the outcome of the Papal Conclave?

• The Universi Dominici Gregis (UDG) governs the process, dictating strict procedures and demanding secrecy within Vatican City.

• Influence hinges on pre-existing relationships, sharp negotiation, and the persuasive efforts of respected figures, the ‘great electors’.

• A successful candidate requires a two-thirds majority, necessitating consensus-building and candidates acceptable across different blocs.

• Only cardinals under 80 years have voting rights at the time of the Pope’s death or resignation.

• The current electorate was significantly shaped by Pope Francis, with approximately 80% of the voting cardinals appointed.

Political Divisions Among Electors

• There are two major camps — reformist and conservative.

• The reformist/progressive faction supports Pope Francis’s vision, emphasizing pastoral theology, synodality, social justice, and greater inclusion of women and marginalized groups.

• The conservative/traditionalist faction has concerns about perceived doctrine ambiguity and the departure from tradition during Pope Francis’s pontificate.

• Many cardinals, especially appointees from the Global South, defy easy categorization, making their voting patterns less predictable.

Geographical Balance of Power Shift

• Pope Francis reshaped the College of Cardinals to reflect the Church’s actual global distribution.

• Europe constitutes less than half (approx. 39.3%) of cardinal electors, a first in centuries.

• Other regions have grown: Asia-Pacific accounts for about 17%, Latin America 15.6%, and Africa 13.3%.

Key Issues to Be Discussed

• Synodality, navigating contentious social and moral questions, the role of women, sensitive topics like clerical celibacy and bioethics, the global clergy abuse crisis, and the papacy’s role in geopolitics and internal reform are key issues.

• The outcome is considered unpredictable due to strict secrecy and the need for broad consensus.