Multiple Gaza ceasefire layers

• The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced just before the swearing-in of US President-elect Donald Trump and the final address of outgoing President Joe Biden on January 15, 2025.

• The deal, which will take effect from January 19, 2025, is centered around an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

• The agreement was seen as a marketable advertisement of renewed American strength and an attempt to salvage legacy for both Trump and Biden.

• Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had previously sought a longer leash to continue military operations in Gaza, was reportedly the one to court Trump.

• The deal is seen as offering Trump a victory at potentially big domestic costs for Netanyahu, who has maintained that only a complete victory over Hamas is acceptable.

• Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon have had their capacities diminished over the past year due to leadership decapitation operations conducted by Israel.

• The lack of a political track acting as insurance for the ceasefire remains a concern, and Hamas is expected to continue to control Gaza in the future.

• The prevailing situation of the status quo can be leveraged by Netanyahu in case Hamas resumes attacks against Israeli territories and populations.

• The international community must also play a role in pushing for the sustainability of the deal, as the future of West Asian prosperity, newer geo-economic architectures, and the radicalism of a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalisation hinge on this momentum.