The perception shift against the AAP in the Delhi election

• The 2025 election marked a significant shift in voter behavior, gender-based voting patterns, and factors influencing poll outcomes.

• Data from Codemo and PeoplesPulse’s survey revealed major shifts in voter behavior, gender-based voting patterns, and the factors influencing the outcome.

• The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) remained ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in perception vote share, indicating a larger section of voters believed it could return to power.

• The AAP’s perception vote share peaked at 49.2% on January 1, but steadily declined thereafter, dropping to 40.5% by February 4.

• The BJP and Congress improved their vote share by 4.7% and 2.3% points respectively to reach 48.5% and 7% over the same period.

• The AAP’s vote share among female voters dropped to 50.2%, while the BJP and Congress gained at its expense, rising to 41.8% and 6.1%, respectively.

• The BJP had an edge among male voters from the beginning and increased its margin over the AAP with time.

• The AAP secured more than 55% of the general category vote share in the 2020 Delhi election.

• The BJP gained ground among Other Backward Classes (OBCs) with a vote share of 48.6%, while the AAP got 41.1%.

• In the final phase of the election, the AAP witnessed a significant decline in the Scheduled Caste (SC) vote share.

• The Congress’ vote share was 19% among Muslim voters, a significant improvement from 12% in the 2020 Delhi election survey.